A. Krajicek/R. Ram vs T. Machac/A. Pavlasek
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value backing the home doubles pair at 1.80 based on a conservative 59% win estimate, yielding ~+6.2% ROI.
Highlights
- • Current home price (1.80) is above our minimum fair odds (≈1.695)
- • Conservative estimate still produces positive expectancy
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available price
- + Conservative projection reduces chance of overreach given limited data
Cons
- - No match-specific form, injury, or H2H data available increases uncertainty
- - Edge is modest — susceptible to normal variance in doubles outcomes
Details
We estimate a modest edge for the home pair (A. Krajicek/R. Ram) relative to the market. With no external scouting data available, we apply conservative assumptions: the home side is treated as the slight favorite based on home designation and standard doubles dynamics (team cohesion advantage vs ad-hoc pairings). The market prices of Home=1.80 (implied 55.6%) and Away=1.97 (implied 50.8%) include a bookmaker margin; normalizing those implies close odds but leaves room for value if our true probability exceeds ~55.6%. We conservatively estimate the home team win probability at 59.0%, which produces positive expected value at the current decimal price of 1.80 (EV = 0.062, or +6.2% ROI). Given the absence of injury/form/H2H data, we keep our probability conservative and flag residual uncertainty, but at these odds the home side offers a reasonable value play.
Key factors
- • No external data available — conservative probability estimate
- • Home team assigned slight edge based on typical doubles cohesion/home advantage
- • Market price (1.80) implies ~55.6% — our estimated 59.0% exceeds this, creating value