A. Oana/D. Simionescu vs L. Karatancheva/S. Nahimana
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information and a conservative 78% true probability for the away pair, the offered favorite odds (1.21) are too short and the underdog price (4.10) is not long enough to represent value — we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (away) ≈82.6%; our estimate 78% → market is slightly overstating the favorite
- • Home would require ≥4.545 to be +EV versus our estimate; current 4.10 is insufficient
Pros
- + Market strongly favors the away team, which is rational if they are significantly better
- + Conservative approach reduces downside from unknowns (surface, injuries, H2H)
Cons
- - No external data to confirm our probability estimate leaves room for error
- - Doubles variance means a single upset is plausible; market may be pricing tournament/field factors we cannot see
Details
We view the market as heavily skewed toward the away pair at 1.21 (market-implied ≈82.6%). With no additional form, surface, H2H, or injury information available, we adopt a conservative true win-probability estimate for the away team of 78% (0.78) to account for variance in doubles and lack of confirming data. At p=0.78 the fair decimal price is 1.282, which is above the offered 1.21, producing negative expected value. Conversely, the home pair would need odds ≥4.545 to be +EV against our estimated home probability of 22% (1 - 0.78), but the market price of 4.10 is short of that. Therefore neither side offers positive EV at current prices.
Key factors
- • Heavy market favoritism to away at 1.21 implying ≈82.6% win chance
- • No independent form, surface, injury, or H2H data — we use conservative probability estimates
- • Doubles matches have higher variance; underdogs can upset but current prices don't offer enough margin