A. Perez/J. Vance vs J J. Bianchi/D. Milavsky
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no outside information and a conservative true-win estimate of 58%, the current home price (1.67) is slightly underpriced for value and does not produce a positive EV; we therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.67) > our conservative estimate — no value
- • Required fair odds to break even on our estimate: ~1.724
Pros
- + Home is the market favorite, which matches our conservative assessment
- + Market prices are liquid and widely available
Cons
- - No external research available — high uncertainty in our probability estimate
- - Current odds do not exceed our minimum required odds for positive EV
Details
We have no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices imply probabilities of ~59.9% for the home pair (1.67) and ~47.6% for the away pair (2.10) but include an overround. Based on conservative judgment for a doubles match with no confirming data, we estimate the home team’s true win probability at 58.0% (0.58). At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.724; the current offered home price of 1.67 is too low to present value (EV = 0.58*1.67 - 1 = -0.031). The away side would require an even higher true probability than we would assign to be profitable at 2.10. Therefore no side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • No independent data on form, injuries, or H2H — we use conservative priors
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.67) is ~59.9% but includes vig
- • Our conservative true estimate (58.0%) is below the breakeven threshold for current price