A. Robbe/K. Sebov vs C. Harrison/A. Lahey
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home team (A. Robbe/K. Sebov) at 2.75 — our estimated win probability (43%) yields a positive EV of ~0.183 per unit staked, but the recommendation carries notable uncertainty due to sparse doubles data.
Highlights
- • Favorite (Harrison/Lahey) looks overvalued given Harrison's form
- • Home at 2.75 exceeds our minimum fair odds of 2.326
Pros
- + Positive EV at current market price
- + Market likely overreacting to a named player despite poor recent results
Cons
- - Very limited information on doubles pairings and A. Lahey / Robbe/Sebov form
- - Outcome sensitive to doubles chemistry and surface; high uncertainty
Details
We see the market pricing the Harrison/Lahey side as a strong favorite at 1.40 (implied ~71.4%). The only research data available shows C. Harrison with a weak recent record (10-21) and poor recent results on hard courts, indicating form concerns. There is no information on A. Lahey or on the Robbe/Sebov pairing in the provided research, which increases outcome uncertainty — markets often overprice a named player when partner data is thin. Given Harrison's documented poor form and the large market edge for the favorite, we estimate the true win probability for Robbe/Sebov at 43.0%, which implies fair odds of 2.326; the current home price of 2.75 offers positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing the home side only because EV > 0 at the quoted price. This view is conservative given very limited data on doubles chemistry and opponents, so sensitivity to that uncertainty is noted.
Key factors
- • C. Harrison's recent poor form and 10-21 record
- • Market implying ~71% for Harrison/Lahey despite negative recent results
- • Lack of available data on doubles partners increases bookmaker uncertainty