A. Thanos/P. Tsitsipas vs R. Matos /M. Melo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the away team at 1.16 based on a conservative 90% win probability estimate, producing ~4.4% expected ROI; the value is modest and subject to elevated uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Implied probability at 1.16: ~86.2%
- • Our conservative estimated probability: 90% → EV ≈ 4.4% per unit staked
Pros
- + Current price (1.16) is above our conservative fair-price threshold (1.111)
- + Clear market favorite reduces variance of outcome relative to evenly matched contests
Cons
- - Edge is small (only ~4.4% ROI) and susceptible to model error or unknown factors
- - No external sources or injury/form data available, increasing prediction uncertainty
Details
We compare the bookmaker decimal price for the away pair (1.16, implied win probability 86.2%) to our conservative estimated true probability. With no external injury or form data returned and relying on standard assumptions about established doubles pairs being clear favorites in this matchup, we estimate the away team’s true win probability at 90%. That produces a positive edge: EV = 0.90 * 1.16 - 1 = 0.044 (4.4% ROI). The market price (1.16) comfortably exceeds the minimum fair price implied by our probability (1.111), so we identify a small but positive value on the away side while noting the limited information and higher uncertainty inherent in short-priced outcomes.
Key factors
- • Away team listed as heavy favorite (1.16) with implied probability ~86.2%
- • Conservative estimated true probability (90%) yields a small positive edge
- • No external injury, surface, or recent-form data available increases uncertainty