Aaddi Gupta vs Daniela Darta Feldmane

Highlights

• • Conservative true probability estimated at 50% for each player
• • Current market odds (1.84) produce EV = -0.08 on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Market appears balanced between the two players
• + If additional favorable information appears (injury, withdrawal, surface edge), value could emerge

Cons

• - No data to support an edge on either player — high uncertainty
• - Current odds imply a higher probability than our conservative estimate, producing negative EV

Details

We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, so we adopt a conservative 50% true-win probability for each player. The market prices (1.84/1.84) imply an implied probability of ~54.35% per side, which is higher than our conservative estimate. Using our 50% estimate, the expected value at the current decimal price (1.84) is negative (EV = 0.50 * 1.84 - 1 = -0.08), so the market is overpriced relative to our assumed true probability and does not present value. Given the lack of information, we will not recommend a side; we instead provide the minimum fair odds that would be required to justify a bet and the EV at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H—conservative 50% estimate used
• • Market decimal odds 1.84 imply ~54.35% probability per player, which exceeds our conservative estimate
• • To reach breakeven against our estimate the market would need to offer at least 2.000 decimal