Highlights

• • Home odds 1.82 imply 54.9% — we estimate 62%
• • Min fair odds based on our estimate: 1.613 — current price offers value

Pros

• + Clear relative edge in career winning percentage and match history
• + Current odds provide a demonstrable positive expected value vs our probability

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes and mixed recent form increase variance
• - No H2H data and limited match-level stats for robust adjustment

Details

We see value backing Aaron Funk at 1.82. The market-implied probability for the home price is about 54.9%, but comparing recent career records (Funk 8-13 vs Djosic 2-10) and both players' clay experience, we estimate Funk to be meaningfully stronger here. Both players have limited samples and mixed form, but Djosic's win rate is substantially lower, which we view as shifting the true match probability in Funk's favor. Our estimated true probability (62%) implies minimum fair odds of ~1.613 — the current 1.82 is above that threshold, producing positive expected value. We also note uncertainty from small sample sizes and limited direct data, so we price a margin for variance in our probability.

Key factors

• • Aaron Funk has a substantially better career win rate (8-13) than Nikola Djosic (2-10)
• • Both players have clay experience; surface does not negate Funk's edge
• • Market-implied probability (54.9%) underestimates Funk relative strength in thin-sample context