Highlights

• • Molcan's career record and recent results are clearly stronger
• • Current price (1.413) exceeds our fair threshold (1.370)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the quoted price
• + Lower surface uncertainty — both players have hard-court experience

Cons

• - Edge is small (~3.2% EV) — outcome variance in tennis can erase small edges quickly
• - No head-to-head data provided, which adds model uncertainty

Details

We prefer Alex Molcan. He has a substantially stronger career win rate (38-14 vs Shelbayh's 28-34) and both players have experience on hard courts, which reduces surface-based uncertainty. The market price of 1.413 implies a win probability of ~70.8%; based on head-to-head absence but clear form and record advantage, we estimate Molcan's true win probability at 73.0%. Using that probability, the fair decimal price is 1.370 (1 / 0.73). Since the available price (1.413) is higher than 1.370, there is a small positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.73 * 1.413 - 1 = 0.032 (≈ +3.2% ROI). No injuries or other negative signals were present in the provided research.

Key factors

• • Molcan's superior season/career win-loss record and recent form
• • Both players are comfortable on hard courts, reducing surface uncertainty
• • Bookmaker-implied probability (≈70.8%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (73%)
• • No injury concerns or negative indicators in the provided research