Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Pridankina at 1.01 (implied ~99%)
• • Our reasonable true win estimate (~90%) yields negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Pridankina has deep experience and a winning career record
• + If larger odds (≥1.111) became available, the favorite would be a low-variance, positive-EV play

Cons

• - Current price (1.01) offers no value — negative expected return
• - Lack of information on the home player increases upset risk and uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Away Elena Pridankina at 1.01, implied ~99.0%) to our assessment. From the provided data Pridankina is an experienced player (career record 559-507) but the research also shows recent losses and mixed recent form; there is no information supplied on Abril Cardenas Olivares to justify treating this as a near-certainty. We estimate Pridankina's true win probability at 90.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.111. At the quoted 1.01 there is no value: the implied probability (≈99%) substantially overstates her true chance and yields a negative EV (EV = 0.90*1.01 - 1 = -0.091). Because expected value is not positive at the current price, we do not recommend betting either side. We would only consider backing Pridankina if we could obtain decimal odds ≥ 1.111.

Key factors

• • Market price implies ~99% chance (1.01) — extremely short and unlikely to offer value
• • Pridankina is experienced (559-507 career) but recent results in the research show losses and inconsistent form
• • No data provided on Abril Cardenas Olivares — absence of opponent data increases uncertainty and argues against accepting a near-certain market price