Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Sasha: ~40.8%
• • Our estimated probability for Sasha: 65% — substantial edge

Pros

• + Strong value gap between our probability and market price
• + Adam Jilly's recent form and serve stats suggest vulnerability

Cons

• - Limited data available on Sasha Colleu in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Surface and match conditions are unknown and could reduce the edge

Details

The market prices Sasha Colleu at 2.45 (implied win probability ~40.8%). Our assessment based on the provided dossier for Adam Jilly shows a fragile profile: short pro span, 5-8 career record and very weak recent form (only 1 win in the last 10 matches, recent match showing just 43% 1st-serve points won). Given that information and the absence of contrary evidence for Sasha, we estimate Adam is the inferior player and assign Sasha a materially higher win probability than the market implies. Comparing our estimated true probability (65%) to the market (40.8%) yields clear value on the away side: EV = 0.65 * 2.45 - 1 = 0.593 (59.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We used the current decimal price of 2.45 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Adam Jilly's subpar overall record (5-8) and very poor recent form (1 win in last 10)
• • Recent match-level stat showing low 1st-serve point win (43%), indicating serve vulnerability
• • Market implies Sasha only ~40.8% but available evidence points to Sasha being clear favorite