Adan Freire Da Silva vs Emile Dupanloup

Highlights

• • Book implies only ~7.7% chance for the away player at 13.0
• • We estimate a conservative 12% true chance, producing +0.56 EV per unit

Pros

• + Large edge relative to implied probability at current odds
• + No evidence in Research of a disqualifying injury to justify the extreme favorite price

Cons

• - Limited data available on the away player; our estimate relies on inferring the favorite is overrated
• - Longshot bets are high variance — realized outcomes will be infrequent

Details

We identify value on the away player (Emile Dupanloup) because the market price (13.0, implied win probability ~7.7%) appears disconnected from the limited performance evidence on the heavy favorite. Adan Freire Da Silva's public profile shows a 13-14 record across minor events and mixed recent results; this does not support a ~97% true-win probability. With no injury or other disqualifying information in the Research, a conservative upset probability for the underdog is materially higher than the book's 7.7%. Using an estimated true probability of 12%, the away price 13.0 yields an expected value of 0.56 units per 1-unit stake (EV = 0.12 * 13.0 - 1). Therefore the underdog is a value play at the quoted price, assuming our probability estimate is reasonable.

Key factors

• • Adan Freire Da Silva's career record is only marginally positive (13-14) and recent results are mixed, not dominance-consistent with 97% win chance
• • No Research indicates injury or retirement for either player, so the extreme market price likely reflects market inefficiency rather than confirmed absence
• • Large discrepancy between implied market probability (7.7%) and our conservative upset estimate (12%) creates positive expected value at current odds