Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Rosenkranz: ~84.3% (1.187)
• • Our estimated true probability for Rosenkranz: 78% → required fair odds 1.282

Pros

• + Rosenkranz has superior experience and a stronger career record
• + No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either player in the available data

Cons

• - Market has heavily favored Rosenkranz, leaving little or negative betting value
• - Adan's small sample size makes it hard to justify the long price as true value

Details

We estimate Mats Rosenkranz is the clear favorite based on a substantially larger sample of matches (74 vs 25) and a stronger win-loss record (44-30 vs 12-13). The market price (away 1.187) implies ~84.3% chance to win, but our assessment is more conservative: we assign Rosenkranz a true win probability of 78% given his experience and recent mixed results. Using p=0.78, the minimum fair decimal price is 1.282, while the quoted 1.187 is too short, producing negative expected value (EV = 0.78*1.187 - 1 = -0.074). The long price on Adan Freire Da Silva (4.31) would only be +EV if his true win probability were ≳30%, which is not supported by the limited sample and comparative form. Therefore no side offers positive EV at the current market prices.

Key factors

• • Rosenkranz has far greater match experience and a better overall win-loss record
• • No injury or withdrawal information is present for either player; recent results include losses for both
• • Market implies ~84.3% for Rosenkranz (1.187) which is shorter than our conservative 78% estimate