Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~58.7%; our estimate: 62%
• • Edge is modest and comes from career-level consistency and experience

Pros

• + Higher career win percentage and greater match sample
• + Current price (1.704) implies probability below our conservative true estimate

Cons

• - Recent results shown are mixed for both players and include recent losses
• - No head-to-head or explicit surface/venue detail in the provided research increases variance

Details

We estimate value on the home moneyline (Adhithya Ganesan). The market-implied probability for the home price 1.704 is ~58.7% (1/1.704). Ganesan has a superior career win percentage (32-24 = 57.1%) versus Raynel (23-23 = 50.0%) and more match volume, suggesting slightly greater consistency at ITF level. Recent results listed for both players are mixed with losses, so short-term form does not favor a large adjustment, but the combination of better career win rate and greater match experience supports a true win probability we estimate at 62.0%. At that probability the current home price (1.704) offers a positive edge. Key uncertainties are limited surface-specific data for this event and no H2H info, so we size the edge conservatively.

Key factors

• • Home player (Ganesan) superior career win rate (32-24 vs 23-23)
• • Market-implied probability (58.7%) is lower than our estimated true probability (62%)
• • Limited and mixed recent form for both players introduces uncertainty