Highlights

• • Ganesan stronger career win-rate and broader match experience
• • Rivera's career record is weak, but market already reflects a heavy favorite

Pros

• + Ganesan has a markedly better career record and surface experience
• + No injury or suspension indicators in the provided research

Cons

• - Recent match snippets show Ganesan has losses in recent events, limiting confidence
• - Market price (>80% implied) is higher than our probability estimate, producing negative EV

Details

We compare the market price (Adhithya Ganesan at 1.235, implied ~81.0%) to our assessed win probability. Ganesan has the clearly stronger career profile (38-35) versus Rivera (14-42) and both have experience on the listed surfaces, so we estimate Ganesan is the likely winner. However, the market is pricing Ganesan at >80% probability; our best estimate of his true win probability is ~75%, which does not justify backing him at 1.235 because required probability to break even at that price is ~81.0%. There are no injury flags or H2H data in the supplied research to materially move our estimate higher, and Rivera's poor career win-rate supports a Ganesan favorite but not at the short price offered. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Career records: Ganesan substantially better (38-35) vs Rivera (14-42)
• • Recent form: both show recent losses in supplied snippets; no clear momentum edge
• • Market price implies >80% for Ganesan, which exceeds our estimated ~75% true probability