Highlights

• • Large gap in career win rates favors Ganesan
• • Current market price (2.39) implies a ~41.8% chance — below our 62% estimate

Pros

• + Clear career record advantage for Ganesan in the provided data
• + Current decimal price offers substantial theoretical ROI given our probability estimate

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses in the provided match snippets, which increases short-term volatility
• - No head-to-head data or explicit surface/venue confirmation in the provided research increases uncertainty

Details

We find value backing Adhithya Ganesan (home). His career win rate (32-24, ~57%) materially exceeds Mika Petkovic's (9-23, ~28%) based on the provided profiles, and both players have experience on the same surfaces (hard/clay) listed in their summaries. The market currently prices Ganesan at 2.39 (implied probability ~41.8%), which is substantially lower than our estimated true win probability for Ganesan. Allowing for recency noise (both have recent losses in the provided logs) and smaller sample sizes for Petkovic, we estimate Ganesan's true win probability at 62%, producing positive expected value at the current decimal price of 2.39. Key uncertainties that temper confidence include both players' recent form showing losses and the lack of head-to-head or specific surface/venue context in the provided data, but even with conservative adjustment from raw career rates we still detect strong value vs the market price.

Key factors

• • Adhithya Ganesan career win rate (~57%) vs Mika Petkovic (~28%)
• • Both players have experience on listed surfaces (hard/clay) — no clear surface edge for Petkovic in the data
• • Market implies only ~41.8% for Ganesan (2.39), below our estimated true win probability