Highlights

• • Oradini materially stronger on available records and recent form
• • Implied market probability (~95.5%) exceeds our realistic estimate (~85%)

Pros

• + Oradini is the logical match favorite based on wins and match volume
• + Surface and recent results favor Oradini relative to Kalyanpur

Cons

• - Market price is extremely short, offering no value
• - Tennis match variance means even clear favorites do lose more often than 4.5% of the time

Details

We estimate Giovanni Oradini is clearly the stronger player based on the provided career records (Oradini 27-24 vs Kalyanpur 6-19) and recent results, but the market price (away 1.047, implied win ~95.5%) overstates his probability of winning. Using the available data we estimate Oradini's true win probability around 85% — reflecting a sizable advantage but also accounting for tennis variance and limited head-to-head/context data. At that estimated probability the fair decimal price is ~1.176, well above the offered 1.047, so the current market price offers negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend betting at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate disparity: Oradini 27-24 vs Kalyanpur 6-19
• • Both players have recent clay results, but Oradini shows deeper match sample and recent win
• • Market heavily favors Oradini (implied ~95.5%) — likely an overprice given variance and available data