Highlights

• • Book implied away probability: ~7.1% vs our estimate 28%
• • Minimum fair decimal odds given our estimate: ~3.571 (current 14.0 >> fair)

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at the quoted price
• + Both players show comparable records and surface history, supporting our higher estimate for the underdog

Cons

• - Extremely lopsided market prices can reflect unreported late scratches or data errors not present in the research
• - Our probability is an estimate from limited data and could be overly optimistic

Details

We view the price for Emma Mazzoni (14.0) as a clear market mispricing relative to on-paper evidence. The research shows both players with nearly identical career spans, 10-21 records and experience on the same surfaces (clay and hard), with recent form that does not materially separate them. There are no injury reports or retirement notes in the provided data to justify a near-certain market probability for Adithya Karunaratne. The book implies ~7.1% for Mazzoni (1/14.0), but given parity in profile and form we estimate Mazzoni's true win probability around 28%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is ~3.571, and the current price of 14.0 offers substantial positive expected value. We note one structural risk: extremely lopsided market prices can sometimes reflect late, unreported information (withdrawal/retirement risk) or data feed anomalies; absent such evidence in the research, the raw numbers indicate strong value on the away side.

Key factors

• • Near-identical career records and surface experience for both players
• • No injuries or withdrawals reported in the provided research
• • Market implies only ~7% for away despite on-paper parity