Highlights

• • Midon has a substantially stronger career record and much more match experience
• • Current odds (1.69) are slightly above our fair price (≈1.613), yielding value

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate advantage
• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈4.8% ROI) — outcome volatility in a single match remains high
• - Research shows recent losses for both players and lacks head-to-head or definitive surface confirmation

Details

We find value on Lautaro Midon. The market price of 1.69 implies a win probability of about 59.1% (1/1.69). Based on the available career data, Midon has substantially more match experience (193 total matches, 123-70 record, ~63.7% career win rate) versus Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (51 matches, 22-29, ~43.1% win rate). That experience gap and higher career win rate lead us to estimate Midon's true win probability at ~62.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613 (1/0.62) versus the offered 1.69, producing positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.62 * 1.69 - 1 = 0.048 (4.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The market margin (~7–8%) is present but does not eliminate the edge at the quoted away price. There are risk factors (both players show recent losses in the provided recent-match lines and we lack H2H and explicit surface/venue confirmation), so the edge is modest but real at the current price.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap (Midon 193 matches vs Vallejo 51) and higher career win rate for Midon
• • Market-implied probability (59.1%) below our estimated true probability for Midon (62%)
• • Recent-match snippets show both players with losses, adding variance but not negating Midon's overall edge