Highlights

• • Home favourite overpriced given documented form
• • Away at 3.40 offers >20% ROI under our probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at available market price
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces value

Cons

• - Limited opponent-specific data increases estimation uncertainty
• - Short-favourite dynamics can still materialize despite poor form

Details

The market prices Adolfo Daniel Vallejo as a strong favorite at 1.27 (implied ~78.7%), but his career record (54-68) and the recent run shown in the provided profile indicate weak form, including straight losses in recent challenger events on hard. The board shows a noticeable overround (home implied 78.7% vs away implied 29.4% sum >100%), suggesting the favorite price may be inflated. Given the limited opponent information, we conservatively estimate Mateo Del Pino's win probability at 36% — reflecting Vallejo's sub-.500 career record and recent poor results which reduce the favorite's true probability well below the market-implied level. At an estimated true probability of 0.36, the away price of 3.40 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.36*3.4 - 1 = +0.224). Therefore we recommend backing the away player only because the current decimal price offers value relative to our assessed win probability. We used the quoted away odds of 3.40 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Vallejo career record below .500 (54-68) indicating systemic weaknesses
• • Recent form shows losses in recent challenger events, reducing favourite reliability
• • Market overround and very short home price likely overstates the favourite’s chance