Highlights

• • Implied away probability 12.5% vs our 20% estimate
• • Required fair odds for our estimate is 5.00; current 8.0 is well above that

Pros

• + Large pricing disparity creates strong positive EV at the current away price
• + Cavallo's clay-only background suggests he may be better suited to Mar Del Plata conditions

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and contextual data in the research increases uncertainty
• - Both players have losing overall records, so matches are high-variance

Details

We view the market price (Away 8.0 decimal = 12.5% implied) as overstating the favorite. Both players have losing overall records in the provided data (Vallejo 22-29, Cavallo 11-15) and recent form is mixed. Cavallo's results are from clay events and he appears to be a clay specialist, while Vallejo's recent listed matches are on hard with losses; that suggests Cavallo should be more competitive on a clay venue like Mar Del Plata. Given the available information, we place Cavallo's true win probability materially above the market's 12.5% implied chance. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 20% for Cavallo against the listed 8.0 price yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.20 * 8.0 - 1 = 0.60). Because the required fair decimal price for that probability is 5.000 (1/0.20), the current 8.0 quote contains significant value relative to our estimate. We use the current away price (odds_used_for_ev = 8.0) for the EV calculation and recommend backing the away player only because EV > 0 at that price.

Key factors

• • Market implies 12.5% for Away (8.0) which is likely too low given both players' records
• • Cavallo's match history is exclusively clay, suggesting surface advantage in Mar Del Plata
• • Vallejo's recent listed matches are on hard and show losses, reducing confidence in a 95% market win-probability