Highlights

• • Varillas’ deep career sample and higher win-rate suggest a genuine quality edge
• • Current market price (1.606) implies ~62.3% — we estimate ~68%, creating value

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate advantage for Varillas
• + Quoted odds produce positive EV against our probability estimate

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses in the limited Research sample, creating some form uncertainty
• - Vallejo could produce an upset on the day given tennis variance and limited head-to-head data

Details

We see clear value on Juan Pablo Varillas at the available market price (1.606). Comparing the two profiles from the Research: Varillas is a long-established player (career since 2012) with a large sample (396-287 career W-L) and regular clay/hard experience, while Adolfo Daniel Vallejo is a recent pro (career span 2024–2025) with a sub-.500 record (22-29) and limited match history (51 matches). Both players show recent losses in their listed matches, but the experience, higher career win rate and likely quality edge for Varillas at an ITF semifinal lead us to assign Varillas a substantially higher true win probability than the market-implied 62.3%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 68% for Varillas yields an expected value of EV = 0.68 * 1.606 - 1 = +0.092 (9.2% ROI) at the quoted decimal odds. The market contains roughly a 7.7% margin between the two sides, and our model believes Varillas’ true chance exceeds the market-implied chance enough to justify a bet. We factor in surface experience for both players (both have clay and hard listed), Vallejo’s limited match volume and losing record, and Varillas’ much larger career sample and higher win rate when assigning probability. Given those points, 1.606 offers positive expected value versus our estimate.

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior career win-rate for Varillas (396-287) versus Vallejo (22-29)
• • Vallejo is a recent pro with limited sample (51 matches) and a sub-.500 record
• • Market-implied probability (62.3%) appears below our assessed true probability for Varillas (68%)