Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Muzammil Murtaza

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 98.04% at 1.02; our estimate 95% yields negative EV
• • Underdog price 15.0 implies 6.67% chance — we estimate Murtaza's true chance is lower than needed for value

Pros

• + Vallejo has far more match experience and demonstrated play on hard courts
• + Market correctly reflects heavy favourite status, reducing likelihood of overpriced favourite

Cons

• - Vallejo's overall record (22-29) shows inconsistency — but the market price already accounts for this
• - Murtaza's sample size is tiny and results are poor, but the underdog price still isn't backed by a realistic win probability

Details

We compare the market prices to our estimated win probability. The market makes Adolfo Daniel Vallejo an overwhelming favourite at 1.02 (implied 98.04%) while Muzammil Murtaza is priced at 15.0 (implied 6.67%). Based on the research, Vallejo has significantly more match experience and is the logical favorite versus a player with only two recorded matches and 0-2 record on hard courts. However, Vallejo's overall record (22-29) shows vulnerability and the market price for him is so short that even a very high true probability (we estimate 95%) does not produce positive expected value at 1.02. At our estimated true probability (0.95) the minimum decimal price required to break even is 1.053; the current 1.02 offers negative EV. The away price (15.0) would require an implausibly high true probability (~6.67% implied vs what we estimate for the inexperienced underdog) to be +EV, and we estimate Murtaza's true chance is well below the threshold needed to justify a bet at that price. Therefore neither side represents value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Vallejo has 51 matches vs Murtaza's 2 matches
• • Surface alignment: both have recorded play on hard, favoring Vallejo's broader experience
• • Market heavily favours Vallejo (1.02); price too short to offer positive EV unless his win chance >98%