Highlights

• • Adrian is 0-6 with no recorded wins — market still favors him heavily.
• • At 2.38 for the away side, the price materially exceeds our required minimum (1.538) for positive EV.

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated probability and the market-implied probability for the away player.
• + Current odds (2.38) provide a substantial expected-value edge if our assessment holds.

Cons

• - Limited data on the opponent (Sam Young-Mathers) in the provided research — introduces uncertainty.
• - Small career sample sizes can lead to higher variance and potential model error.

Details

We view the market as significantly overrating the home player Adrian Arcon despite his clearly poor results. Adrian's profile shows a 0-6 career record and persistent losses on his recorded surfaces, yet the market prices him as a 1.52 favorite (implied ~65.8%). That creates an opportunity on Sam Young-Mathers at 2.38 (implied ~42.0%). Given Adrian's 0-6 form, lack of wins in recorded matches, and small career sample that indicates he is not competitive at this level, we estimate Sam's true win probability at 65%. At decimal odds 2.38 this produces EV = 0.65 * 2.38 - 1 = 0.547 (54.7% ROI). The market also shows ~7.8% overround, which reinforces that the 2.38 price contains value relative to our assessment. Key risks are the small-sample nature of Adrian's record and limited public data on Sam, so we remain conservative in our probability (65%) but still find strong value at the current price.

Key factors

• • Adrian Arcon 0-6 career record and recent consistent losses
• • Market prices Adrian as a strong favorite despite poor form (possible mispricing)
• • Overround in market (~7.8%) increases chance of favorable price on the underdog