Highlights

• • Book price for Subasic (1.223) implies ~81.7% win chance
• • Our conservative true probability (60%) yields EV = -0.266 at the current price

Pros

• + Subasic has professional match experience and is the market favorite
• + Research contains direct recent-match entries for Subasic (though mostly losses), which informs a conservative estimate

Cons

• - Subasic's documented record is poor (10-21) and recent results in the sample are losses
• - No information provided about Adriana Tkachenko, making matchup assessment incomplete and risky

Details

We view the market price (Alana Subasic at 1.223) as too short given the limited and mixed information. Subasic's career record in the research is 10-21 (≈32% career win rate) and her recent form shown in the sample matches is weak; however, we lack independent, comparable data on Adriana Tkachenko (ranking, recent results, surface preference) to justify a confident upside for the underdog. Conservatively we estimate Subasic's true win probability at 60%, which is materially below the implied market probability (~81.7%), but still not high enough to justify taking the short price of 1.223. At our probability the expected value at the current away price is negative, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Alana Subasic (implied ~81.7%), creating a short price
• • Research shows Subasic career record 10-21 with recent losses and limited wins
• • No usable data provided for Adriana Tkachenko (ranking, form, head-to-head, surface), increasing uncertainty