Adriana Tkachenko vs Dune Vaissaud

Highlights

• • Vaissaud implied market probability 78.0% vs career win rate ≈32.3%
• • Home 3.28 requires only ~1.818 odds-equivalent probability to break even at our estimate

Pros

• + Large gap between market-implied probability and historical performance for Vaissaud
• + High decimal on the home side (3.28) produces a sizeable EV at conservative true-probability estimates

Cons

• - Very limited data on the home player (Adriana Tkachenko) increases uncertainty
• - Small sample and ITF-level volatility mean actual match outcome can deviate substantially from estimates

Details

We find value on home (Adriana Tkachenko) because the market heavily favors Dune Vaissaud at decimal 1.282 (implied win probability ~78.0%), yet the only available performance data for Vaissaud shows a career win rate of 10/31 (≈32.3%) and recent losses on hard courts. That historical win-rate and recent form are inconsistent with a ~78% chance in a single ITF R16 match, suggesting the market is overpricing Vaissaud. With little published information about Tkachenko, a conservative re-weighting places the true probability closer to 55% for the home player (weaker evidence than market implies for Vaissaud). At that probability, the home price 3.28 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.55 * 3.28 - 1 = 0.804), so the underdog home side represents a value bet versus the quoted market price.

Key factors

• • Vaissaud career win rate is low (10 wins in 31 matches ≈32.3%)
• • Recent match log shows consecutive losses on hard courts—form not supportive of a heavy favorite tag
• • Market implies ~78% for Vaissaud which appears inconsistent with available performance data