Adriana Tkachenko vs Anastasiia Aralova

Highlights

• • Home needs >98.04% true win probability to be +EV at 1.02; we estimate 96.0%
• • Away odds (15.0) look long but our conservative upset probability (4.0%) still yields negative EV

Pros

• + Market clearly expresses the heavy favorite which reduces variance if one is confident
• + Away price is long enough that a verified increase in upset probability could produce value

Cons

• - Extreme short favorite price leaves almost no margin for error — bookmaker edge dominates
• - Lack of actionable information increases model uncertainty; we prefer to pass

Details

We have no external data on form, injuries, surface or head-to-head and must therefore rely on conservative priors. The market prices Adriana Tkachenko as an overwhelming favorite at 1.02 (implied ~98.04%). For a 1.02 price to be +EV a true win probability would need to exceed 98.039% (1 / 1.02). Given the absence of corroborating information, we conservatively estimate Tkachenko's true win probability at 96.0% (0.96). At that probability the expected value for a 1.02 price is negative (EV = 0.96*1.02 - 1 = -0.0208). The away price (15.0) implies a 6.67% market chance; using our complement estimate (4.0% for the away player) also yields negative EV (0.04*15 - 1 = -0.40). Because neither side shows positive expected value against our conservative probability estimates, we recommend making no bet here. If more reliable, independent information emerges that meaningfully shifts the estimated probabilities (especially pushing home win probability above ~98.04% or showing a materially higher upset chance for the away player), the recommendation should be revisited.

Key factors

• • No independent information on form, surface, injuries or H2H — must use conservative priors
• • Home price (1.02) requires >98.04% true win probability to be profitable
• • Away price (15.0) would need a ~6.667% true probability to break even — our upset estimate is materially lower