Highlights

• • Gobat shows a stronger win-rate in the provided records
• • Market prices are close — slight edge to Gobat at current odds

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (1.862)
• + Simple, conservative edge based on career win-rate and recent form in the supplied data

Cons

• - Both players have no grass data in the supplied research, increasing uncertainty
• - Sample sizes and recent-match detail are limited in the provided profiles

Details

We compare the market prices (Gobat 1.862 implied 53.7%) to our independent read: Adrien Gobat's career win rate (19/39 = 48.7%) is materially higher than Benoit Paire's (10/31 = 32.3%) and Paire's recent results in the supplied research show more losses and weaker form. Neither player has documented grass experience in the provided profiles, so surface is a neutral/uncertain factor for both. Given Gobat's stronger baseline win rate and slightly better recent outcomes in the supplied data, we estimate Gobat's true win probability at 56.0%, which is above the market-implied 53.7% and produces positive edge. At the supplied Gobat price of 1.862 the expected value = 0.56 * 1.862 - 1 = 0.043 (4.3% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home player only because expected_value > 0 at the current odds. If the market price were worse (decimal below 1.786) this edge would disappear.

Key factors

• • Gobat's higher career win rate (19/39) vs Paire (10/31)
• • Recent form in supplied data favors Gobat (Paired has more losses)
• • Both players lack documented grass experience in supplied profiles, adding uncertainty