Highlights

• • Heavy favorite price (1.07) implies >93% win chance for Raggi
• • Given Raggi's documented 10-21 career record and recent losses, a home upset probability materially above 12.5% is plausible

Pros

• + Large market mispricing creates significant upside at 8.0
• + Provided data explicitly shows Raggi struggling in recent matches

Cons

• - Very limited information on Agnese Gentili increases uncertainty
• - Small-sample/incomplete data on Raggi and no head-to-head details make this high variance

Details

We see a massive market lean to Angelica Raggi at 1.07 (implied win probability ~93.5%) despite the provided career numbers showing a 10-21 record and clear recent losses. The market price implies Agnese Gentili has only ~12.5% chance to win (8.0 decimal), which appears too low given Raggi's weak documented form and modest career win rate across 31 matches. With limited publicly provided data on Gentili, the market may be overreacting or mispricing this match; therefore we estimate a materially higher true probability for the home upset, producing positive expected value at the quoted 8.0 price.

Key factors

• • Angelica Raggi's provided career record is 10-21 (low win rate across 31 matches)
• • Research shows recent losses in her last matches, indicating poor form
• • Market heavily favors Raggi (1.07) producing an implied underdog probability (~12.5%) that looks mispriced