Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Kim = 65.4%; our estimate = 62%
• • Fair decimal odds for Kim ≈ 1.613; market is 1.53 (no value)

Pros

• + Kim has a better raw win percentage and recent hard-court activity
• + Both players recently competed at the same event so there are no clear injury flags

Cons

• - Small sample size for Kim heightens uncertainty
• - Matsuda's larger match volume reduces variance and could level the matchup more than raw win rate suggests

Details

We compare the market price (Aidan Kim 1.53 -> implied 65.4%) to our estimate of his true win probability. Kim's short career record (18-9; ~64% overall) and recent hard-court activity put him as the logical favorite versus Ryuki Matsuda (35-30; ~54% overall). However, the market is pricing Kim at ~65.4% while, after adjusting for small-sample variance, Matsuda's greater match volume, and both players having recent matches at this event, we estimate Kim's true win probability at ~62%. At that probability the fair odds are ~1.613, so the current quoted 1.53 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.62*1.53 - 1 ≈ -0.051). Because the market price is slightly shorter than our fair price and the edge is small-to-moderate in magnitude, we do not recommend backing either side at the listed prices.

Key factors

• • Aidan Kim stronger short-term win rate (18-9) and hard-court experience
• • Ryuki Matsuda has larger match sample (35-30) and also plays well on hard
• • Market implies ~65.4% for Kim, which is above our adjusted estimate (62%)