Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Vesely is ~79.8% vs our 75% estimate
• • Current odds are too short — need >=1.333 for positive EV

Pros

• + Vesely has substantial professional experience and an overall winning career record
• + Likely class edge at ITF level based on career resume

Cons

• - Research shows mixed recent clay results, reducing confidence in a >79% true win rate
• - No data provided on the opponent (Sabaliauskas), so matchup risk is unknown

Details

We compared the market price (Vesely away 1.253 -> implied 79.8%) to our assessment. Jiri Vesely is clearly the stronger, more experienced player on paper (career 432-329) and is expected to be favorite at ITF level, but the only research-provided recent results show mixed clay outcomes and there is no scouting data on Ainius Sabaliauskas in the provided material. Given the limited form detail and uncertainty about the opponent, we conservatively estimate Vesely's true win probability at 75%. That implies negative expected value at the current 1.253 quote (EV = 0.75 * 1.253 - 1 = -0.060), so we do not recommend betting the favorite at these prices. For a positive EV on Vesely you would need at least decimal 1.333 or larger; at the available market price the margin is too thin to justify a wager.

Key factors

• • Vesely's career experience and higher-level resume imply class advantage
• • Limited, mixed recent clay results in the provided research reduce confidence
• • No information on Ainius Sabaliauskas in the supplied sources increases uncertainty