Highlights

• • Book prices imply 42.6% for away but we estimate ~55% — positive EV
• • Recommendation driven by Malik's inconsistent results on hard courts and small sample

Pros

• + Clear EV at current away price (EV ≈ +29.3% per unit)
• + Market appears to overvalue the home player relative to documented form

Cons

• - Very limited data on both players and no direct opponent profile increases variance
• - Small-sample form for Malik makes the probability estimate uncertain; higher downside risk

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our modelled win chances. The book markets price the home player Ajay Malik at 1.54 (implied ~64.9%) and the away player at 2.35 (implied ~42.6%). Malik's documented track record is small-sample and below .500 (3-4 overall with mixed results on hard courts), so we estimate Malik's true win probability materially lower than the market (we estimate Malik ~45% and thus the away player ~55%). At the quoted away price of 2.35 that implied probability (42.6%) is well below our estimated 55% win chance, delivering positive expected value. The edge is primarily driven by Malik's limited and inconsistent form versus the market's strong favoritism; however, uncertainty is elevated because we lack direct data on the opponent and the sample size for Malik is small, so the recommendation is a value call with notable variance.

Key factors

• • Ajay Malik has a small sample record (3-4) with mixed recent results on hard courts
• • Market strongly favors the home player (1.54) which implies a much higher win probability than Malik's form suggests
• • Limited opponent information and small sample increase uncertainty despite apparent value on the away price