Highlights

• • Market implied probability: ~92.6% (1.08 odds)
• • Our assessed probability: 93.5% → small but positive EV at current price

Pros

• + Opponent (Rodriguez) has a demonstrably poor 10-21 recent record, reducing upset risk
• + Heavy market favorite status limits variance and aligns with our assessment

Cons

• - Edge is very slim (sub-1% ROI), so bankroll impact per bet is small
• - Research set lacks direct recent data on Tomljanović (form/injury), so our probability premium is conservative and subject to unknowns

Details

We estimate value on Ajla Tomljanović (home). The market price (1.08) implies a win probability of ~92.6%, and we assess Ajla's true chance slightly higher at 93.5% based on Victoria Rodriguez's weak 2024–2025 record (10-21 across 31 matches) and recent poor form, which makes an upset unlikely. Given those factors, the current juice still offers a small positive edge: our estimated probability (93.5%) × the available decimal price (1.08) yields a positive EV. We remain conservative because the research set does not include Tomljanović-specific form or injury information, so our probability premium over the market is modest.

Key factors

• • Victoria Rodriguez's 2024–25 record is a weak 10-21 (31 matches), indicating low winning consistency
• • Market already makes Ajla a very heavy favorite (implied ~92.6%); our assessment is slightly higher (93.5%) creating a small positive edge
• • Research shows Rodriguez's recent match losses and limited form, lowering upset probability