Highlights

• • Bookmaker price implies near-certainty (92%) which is unrealistic given the research
• • Fair-win estimate for Tomljanovic ~60% → requires ~1.667 to be +EV

Pros

• + Tomljanovic may be a slight favorite based on broader career context
• + If additional info (injury to opponent, confirmed form edge) emerges, price could be reasonable

Cons

• - Current market price offers strongly negative EV versus our win probability
• - Research shows both players with similar poor recent form, reducing confidence in a heavy favorite

Details

We find the market price (Ajla Tomljanovic 1.087) implies an ~92% win probability, which is not supported by the available player data. Both players show identical season-level records (10-21) and similar recent form (multiple recent losses); there are no injury or surface advantages in the research that would justify a near-lock for Tomljanovic. Given our estimated true probability for Tomljanovic of 60%, the bookmaker price would need to be ~1.667 or shorter to be a fair bet; the current 1.087 is deeply over-priced against our model and offers strongly negative EV. Therefore we do not recommend taking the heavy favourite at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (92%) is far higher than evidence supports
• • Both players show identical season records (10-21) and recent losing form
• • No injury, h2h, or surface edge in the provided research to justify a large favorite