Highlights

• • Market implies ~89.3% for Santillan; our estimate ~80%
• • Required fair odds for value are ≥1.25; current 1.12 offers negative EV

Pros

• + Santillan shows stronger overall season performance and recent hard-court matches
• + Both players have similar surface profiles so surface mismatch is minimal, favoring the stronger player

Cons

• - Santillan's price is extremely short, leaving no profitable edge
• - Limited additional context (no H2H, injuries, or tournament-specific details) increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Akira Santillan 1.12 decimal => implied win prob ~89.3%) to our estimated true probability. Santillan's season record (26-12) and superior recent results versus Ferguson's weaker record (13-14) and recent losses support Santillan as the clear favorite, but the market is pricing him at an extremely short price. Based on the available match data (both players have most results on hard and Santillan has stronger form), we estimate Santillan's true win probability at ~80.0%. That implies a fair price around 1.25 decimal. At the offered 1.12 there is negative expected value (EV = 0.80 * 1.12 - 1 = -0.104), so the market is overconfident and no value exists on either side at current prices. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Santillan's superior season record (26-12) and recent competitive results
• • Ferguson's sub-.500 record (13-14) and recent losses indicate poor form
• • Market-implied probability for Santillan (≈89.3%) is higher than our estimated true probability (80%), removing value