Akira Santillan vs Kuan-Yi Lee
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market prices are too tight on the underdog and too generous on the favorite relative to our estimates; no value exists at current odds.
Highlights
- • Santillan is a clear form and record favorite on hard courts
- • Lee would need at least ~4.65 to be +EV given our estimated 21.5% win probability
Pros
- + We avoid a marginal negative-expected-value wager
- + Clear line on what odds would be required for a contrarian underdog play
Cons
- - If we are underestimating Lee's upset chance the market could be mispricing him
- - Very short favorite price offers little upside even if our Santillan estimate is conservative
Details
Market prices make Akira Santillan an overwhelming favorite (implied ~84.5% at 1.183) while Kuan-Yi Lee is priced at ~23.0% (4.35). From the supplied profiles we estimate Santillan is clearly the stronger player on hard courts this event (career 29-13, recent matches in Maanshan) and Lee has a weaker recent record (23-19 with recent losses). We estimate Lee's true chance at 21.5% (Santillan ~78.5%) which is below the market-implied 23.0% for the underdog; at current prices the underdog does not offer positive expected value. To get +EV on Lee the price would need to be ~4.651 or higher. Because the favorite’s price (1.183) implies a win probability (84.5%) materially above our Santillan estimate (~78.5%) we also do not see value on the favorite at available prices. Therefore we recommend no bet at the current quotes.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities: Santillan 84.5% (1.183), Lee 23.0% (4.35)
- • Career and recent form favor Santillan on hard (29-13 vs 23-19)
- • Required odds for +EV on Lee are ~4.651 — current 4.35 is below that threshold