Akira Santillan vs Chase Ferguson
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home favorite Akira Santillan at 1.14 — our model estimates a slightly higher true win probability (89%) than the market-implied one, producing a small positive EV.
Highlights
- • Santillan: superior 2025 record and Challenger-level experience
- • Current price 1.14 gives a small but positive edge per our probability estimate
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market odds
- + Low variance scenario relative to betting underdogs due to clear class edge
Cons
- - Edge is small (EV ~1.46%), so payout is limited
- - Upsets can occur in tennis; small margin for error in probability estimate
Details
We favor Akira Santillan based on markedly stronger 2025 form and overall win rate (26-12) versus Chase Ferguson (13-14). Santillan has recent Challenger-level matches and a higher winning consistency on hard courts, while Ferguson's recent results show multiple losses and a sub-.500 record. At the offered decimal 1.14 for Santillan the market-implied probability is ~87.7%; our assessment of Santillan's true win probability is higher (89%), creating a small positive edge. There are no reported injuries or surface mismatches in the provided research to undermine Santillan. Given the current price, the play offers positive expected value, albeit modest.
Key factors
- • Santillan's stronger 2025 win-loss record (26-12) and higher consistency
- • Ferguson's losing/sliding recent form and sub-.500 season record
- • Both players compete on hard courts; Santillan has shown success at higher-level events