Highlights

• • Underdog priced at 2.90 (implied 34.5%) vs our 37% estimate
• • Zhukov's recent Maanshan hard-court form offsets Santillan's favoritism

Pros

• + Current price (2.90) is above our break-even (2.703) for the estimated win probability
• + Zhukov has recent wins in this venue/tournament environment and on hard courts

Cons

• - Santillan has a higher overall win rate and is the home favorite — an upset is still higher variance
• - Research sample is limited and lacks detailed injury/H2H information, increasing uncertainty

Details

We find value on Maxim Zhukov at 2.90. The market prices Akira Santillan as a heavy favorite (implied ~72.0%) but Santillan's career win rate (~68%) and recent results include losses at challenger events, reducing confidence that he should be priced that high at this ITF-level semifinal. Zhukov has more recent match wins at the Maanshan hard-court event and a solid overall record (31-25), indicating form and comfort on this surface. Given the level (ITF semifinal) and the head-to-head context implied by both playing on hard recently, we estimate Zhukov's true win probability around 37.0%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 34.5% for 2.90. At that probability the bet has positive expected value (EV = 0.37*2.90 - 1 ≈ +0.073 per unit). We therefore recommend the away (Zhukov) only because current decimal odds exceed our minimum required odds for a positive edge.

Key factors

• • Santillan's career win rate (~68%) suggests quality but recent challenger-level losses reduce edge at ITF level
• • Zhukov's recent wins at Maanshan on hard indicate good form on this tournament surface
• • Market heavily favors the home player (implied 72%), leaving value on a live underdog if true win chance ≈37%