Highlights

• • Market heavily favors the away player; implied probability after normalization ~88.9%
• • At 1.06 the favorite is slightly overpriced relative to our conservative estimate (negative EV)

Pros

• + Market consensus is clear and likely reflects a genuine skill gap
• + Odds are widely available and stable, reducing execution risk if value appeared

Cons

• - No independent data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to challenge market probabilities
• - Both sides produce negative EV after removing bookmaker vig, so no value to exploit

Details

We normalize the available market probabilities (home 1/8.5, away 1/1.06) to remove bookmaker vig and use those as conservative estimated true win chances: Tasnim Ismail (away) ~88.9%, Alaa Essid (home) ~11.1%. At the quoted price for the favorite (1.06) our estimated probability implies a negative expected value (EV = 0.889 * 1.06 - 1 ≈ -0.058). The underdog price (8.5) likewise offers no value against our estimate (EV ≈ -0.056). Given the lack of independent form/injury/H2H data and a clear bookmaker margin in the market, we do not identify positive EV on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied prices normalized to remove vig give away ~88.9% chance
• • Current favorite price (1.06) yields slightly negative ROI under our estimate
• • No independent match data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to justify deviating from market