Highlights

• • Our estimated Alafia win probability: 53.0% requires ≥1.887 decimal to be +EV.
• • Current Alafia price (1.877) gives a slight negative EV (~ -0.52% ROI).

Pros

• + Alafia is the closer-to-value side based on Weber's recent form weakness.
• + Market prices are tight; small edges would matter if better odds appear.

Cons

• - No research data provided for Alafia Ayeni increases model uncertainty.
• - Bookmaker margin and Weber's mixed surface experience remove clear value.

Details

We estimate a slight edge to the home player (Alafia Ayeni) primarily because Arthur Weber's profile shows an inconsistent record (15-14) and recent losses in June 2025, suggesting form is fragile. Weber's profile lists experience on clay and hard courts but his recent results include multiple losses, reducing confidence. There is no provided data on Alafia Ayeni (form, surface preference, or H2H), increasing uncertainty. The market prices (Alafia 1.877, Weber 1.833) imply win probabilities of ~53.3% and ~54.6% respectively after including the book's margin. Our best estimated true probability for Alafia is 53.0% (0.530), which requires decimal odds of at least 1.887 to be +EV. Current Alafia odds (1.877) yield a tiny negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.0052), so no value exists at available prices. Weber is in worse form by the available data and our estimated true win probability for him (~47%) produces a notably negative EV at his current price (1.833). Given limited information on Ayeni and the bookmaker overround (~7.8%), we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Arthur Weber's inconsistent recent form and losses in June 2025
• • No available profile or form data for Alafia Ayeni in the provided research
• • Market overround (~7.8%) compresses value on both sides