Highlights

• • Elena's long, higher-win career history supports a true probability above the market-implied ~75%
• • Calculated fair odds (~1.266) are shorter than the available 1.33, producing positive EV (~5.1% ROI)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely available price (1.33)
• + Experience and demonstrated success on hard courts favor Elena

Cons

• - Recent form shows both players with losses in the latest results, introducing form risk
• - Short sample size for Alana makes precise probability separation noisy; variance remains

Details

We see clear value backing Elena Pridankina at the current market price. Elena's long career (559-507 across 1,066 matches) and proven play on hard courts gives her a materially higher base win rate than Alana Smith (10-21 in 31 matches). The market price of 1.33 implies ~75.2% win probability; based on experience, surface competence, and career winning percentage differential, we estimate Elena's true win probability at ~79%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.266, so the offered 1.33 contains positive expected value when compared to our model.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Elena 1,066 matches vs Alana 31 matches
• • Both players have experience on hard courts, but Elena's sustained win rate is higher
• • Market-implied probability (1.33 → ~75.2%) is below our estimated true probability (79%)