Highlights

• • Market implied prob: ~57.8% vs our estimate 62%
• • Positive EV at current price (approx +0.073 per unit staked)

Pros

• + Clear experience and volume advantage for Kozyreva
• + Current odds (1.73) understate Kozyreva's likely win probability

Cons

• - Both players show limited recent form data in the research; short-term volatility possible
• - No detailed head-to-head or injury info provided to further firm up probability

Details

We see value on Maria Kozyreva (away). The market price 1.73 implies a win probability of ~57.8%. Based on the research, Kozyreva is a vastly more experienced player (career >1000 matches, positive overall win rate) versus Alana Smith (31 matches, 10-21 record). That experience edge on the WTA 125K level and across hard/court surfaces suggests Kozyreva's true win probability is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 57.8%. We estimate Kozyreva's true chance at ~62%, producing a positive EV at the available 1.73 price. Factors supporting this: large career and match-count gap, Smith's poor win rate, and both players' recent results showing limited form but nothing to offset the experience advantage. We therefore recommend the away side only because EV > 0 at current odds.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Kozyreva ~1066 matches vs Smith ~31 matches
• • Win-rate disparity: Kozyreva's long-term positive record vs Smith's 10-21
• • Current market-implied probability (57.8%) is below our estimated true probability (62%)