Alastair Gray vs Stefan Seifert
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We judge a small value on Alastair Gray at 1.083 because his likely true win probability (~94%) exceeds the market-implied ~92.3%, producing a modest positive EV.
Highlights
- • Gray has a substantial match volume and winning record this season
- • Current market price is extremely short but still slightly below our estimated fair price
Pros
- + Clear favorite with strong season record
- + Surface experience aligns with typical ITF events
Cons
- - Research contains no information on Stefan Seifert (opponent), increasing matchup uncertainty
- - EV is small due to very short odds; variance and bookmaker margin limit upside
Details
We view Alastair Gray as a clear favorite based on the provided career profile: a busy 55-match season with a 37-18 record and experience on hard/grass/carpet surfaces consistent with ITF-level events. The market prices him at 1.083 (implied win probability ~92.3%). Given his superior record and surface familiarity, we estimate his true chance to win this match materially above the market-implied level. The available data on the opponent is absent in the research, which increases uncertainty, but that lack tends to imply the market sees a significant mismatch (reflected in the 1.083 price). Comparing our estimated probability to the market price yields small but positive expected value at the quoted 1.083 decimal odds.
Key factors
- • Gray's career record 37-18 across 55 matches indicates consistent winning at this level
- • Documented experience on hard/grass/carpet; likely compatible with the event conditions
- • Market price (1.083) already implies an extreme favorite; our estimate still puts slight edge over implied probability