Alba Rey Garcia vs Carmen Gallardo Guevara

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implied probability for Alba = ~86% (1.16 odds)
• • Alba's documented career win rate (10/31 ≈ 32%) and recent losses make that implied probability unrealistic

Pros

• + Alba is listed as the heavy favorite by the market, indicating perceived superiority
• + Match is on clay, a surface Alba has experience on

Cons

• - Provided results show poor recent form and an overall losing career record
• - No information on the opponent to justify the market’s strong favoritism
• - Huge discrepancy between implied market probability and the player’s documented performance

Details

We find no value backing Alba Rey Garcia at the current price. The market price of 1.16 implies an ~86% chance of a home win, but the only provided performance data for Alba shows a career record of 10-21 (31 matches) and weak recent form, which argues for a much lower true win probability. Surface is clay (outdoor), which Alba has played, but the supplied recent results do not show convincing form or dominance on clay to justify an 86% expectation. We also have no data on Carmen Gallardo Guevara to indicate she is an inferior opponent; that information vacuum raises uncertainty and removes confidence in the market’s heavy favoritism. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Alba of 35% gives a negative expected value at the available odds (EV = 0.35*1.16 - 1 = -0.594), so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Alba Rey Garcia career record 10-21 (poor overall win rate)
• • Recent form shown in the provided data is weak (multiple recent losses)
• • Market price (1.16) implies ~86% win probability which conflicts with Alba's documented form and record