Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 80.65% (odds 1.24)
• • Our conservative true probability: 78.0% → required odds ≥ 1.282 for breakeven

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite; prices are available and liquid
• + Conservative, risk-averse stance avoids wagering without supporting data

Cons

• - Lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data increases uncertainty in our estimate
• - Slight difference between our estimate and market could be overturned by undisclosed information

Details

We have no external match intelligence (form, surface, injuries, H2H) and must therefore adopt conservative priors. The market prices Alba Rey Garcia as a strong favorite at 1.24 (implied probability 80.65%). With no additional positive information, we estimate a true win probability for the home player of 78.0% (0.78) — slightly lower than the market, reflecting bookmaker margin and uncertainty. At that estimate the expected value for a home bet is EV = 0.78 * 1.24 - 1 = -0.033 (negative). The away price 3.75 implies ~26.67% but our conservative estimate for the underdog is 22.0% (complement of our home estimate), yielding EV = 0.22 * 3.75 - 1 = -0.175 (also negative). Because both sides produce negative expected value at the quoted prices, we do not recommend a bet. We reference the home odds (1.24) for the detailed EV calculation because it is the market favorite and the tighter value test. Our approach errs on the side of caution given the absence of corroborating data.

Key factors

• • No external match information available (form, surface, injuries, H2H)
• • Market strongly favors home at implied 80.65%, we conservatively estimate 78.0%
• • Both sides produce negative EV at quoted prices (no value present)