Alba Rey Garcia vs Maria Garcia Cid

Highlights

• • Market implies ~26% for away after normalization; we estimate ~40%
• • At 3.51 the away side yields ~+40% ROI by our estimate

Pros

• + Big discrepancy between market-implied probability and our assessment
• + Both players are similar on paper, so the long underdog price appears inflated

Cons

• - Limited differentiation in the available data — outcomes are uncertain
• - Short sample sizes and recent inconsistent form for both players increase variance

Details

We see a large disparity between market pricing and our estimation of the competitive balance. The market decimal prices (Home 1.25, Away 3.51) translate to raw win probabilities of ~80% for Alba Rey Garcia and ~28% for Maria Garcia Cid (normalized ~74% / 26% after accounting for bookmaker overround). The two players have near-identical career records (10-21), similar experience on clay, and comparable recent form (both show recent losses on hard courts). There are no clear injury or form differentials in the provided research to justify an 75%+ favorite. We therefore assign Maria Garcia Cid a true win probability of 40% (0.40), which is materially higher than the market-implied ~26%. Using the quoted away price of 3.51 gives EV = 0.40 * 3.51 - 1 = +0.404 (40.4% ROI). That represents positive value vs. the market price; conversely the home side offers negative EV under our estimate.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and match counts (10-21 each) — parity between players
• • Both players have clay experience and no clear clay-form advantage reported
• • Market strongly favors home (1.25) despite lack of evidence for such a large edge