Highlights

• • Book odds imply ~97% — we estimate ~65%
• • EV at current price is strongly negative (-0.33), so do not bet

Pros

• + Alba is the market favorite which often reflects tournament pedigree or draw advantage
• + She has experience on both clay and hard surfaces

Cons

• - Career record (10-21) and recent losses in the Research point to weak form
• - No data on the opponent prevents confirming the market's heavy favorite pricing

Details

The market prices Alba Rey Garcia at 1.03 (implied ~97.1% win probability), which we view as a clear overstatement given the available profile data. Alba's career record in the dataset is 10-21 with several recent losses, and the Research shows weak recent form across hard and clay surfaces. We lack any data on Marina Quesada Oyonarte to justify a near-certain outcome; absent evidence that Marina is significantly inferior (injury, retirement, or very low level), we estimate Alba's true chance far below the bookmaker-implied probability. Comparing our estimated true probability (65%) to the quoted price (1.03) yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.65 * 1.03 - 1 = -0.3305), so there is no value to back Alba at the current price and therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability (97%) is implausibly high given Alba's recorded 10-21 career mark and recent losses
• • Available research shows poor recent form; no opponent data provided to justify a heavy favorite
• • Surface history includes clay and hard but offers no clear advantage to justify market price