Highlights

• • Book odds: Home 1.725 (≈57.97% implied), Away 2.02 (≈49.50% implied)
• • Our independent estimate for the away is 50.5%, producing ~+2.01% ROI at current price

Pros

• + Market appears to overprice the nominal home advantage despite symmetric data
• + Small but positive expected value at widely available away price (2.02)

Cons

• - Edge is marginal and sensitive to small changes in the win-probability estimate
• - Research provided lacks H2H, surface-specific form or injury details, increasing uncertainty

Details

We assess value on Verena Meliss (away) because the published market prices overstate the home favorite given the research: both players show essentially identical career spans, records (10-21), recent form and surfaces played, with no clear injury, head-to-head or surface advantage identified in the provided data. The book implies probabilities of ~57.97% for Alba Rey Garcia (1.725) and ~49.50% for Verena Meliss (2.02), but those numbers include the bookmaker margin. Given the complete symmetry in available performance data, we estimate the true win probability for Verena Meliss slightly above break-even at 50.5% (0.505) to allow for the possibility that the market is leaning on the nominal 'home' tag. At the quoted away decimal 2.02 this produces a small positive expected value (EV = 0.505 * 2.02 - 1 ≈ +0.0201), so the away line represents marginal value versus our estimate.

Key factors

• • Profiles and recent records are effectively identical (10-21), providing no clear performance edge
• • Market-implied probabilities include bookmaker margin and appear to overvalue the home tag
• • No injuries, surface advantage, or H2H data in research to justify the favorite's pricing