Highlights

• • Market implies only ~30.5% for Buculei vs our ~42% estimate
• • Minimum fair odds for Buculei are ~2.381; current price 3.28 significantly exceeds that

Pros

• + Clear experience and durability advantage for Buculei
• + Large gap between our estimated probability and market-implied probability

Cons

• - Limited direct form detail and no head-to-head data in the provided research
• - Short professional history for Alba could hide recent improvement not captured here

Details

We find value on Iulia Maria Buculei. The market heavily favors Alba Rey Garcia at 1.296 (implied 77.2%) while Buculei is priced at 3.28 (implied 30.5%). Our assessment of the limited research: Buculei brings much greater career experience and a superior overall win-rate (559-507 across a long career) compared with Alba Rey Garcia's short pro span and losing record (10-21). Both have played clay and hard courts, but Alba's recent results in the sample are poor and show inconsistency. Adjusting for experience, durability, and likely match-play temperament in a QF, we estimate Buculei's true win probability at 42.0%, implying fair odds ~2.381. At the available 3.28, the bet offers positive expected value (EV = 0.378 per 1 unit stake).

Key factors

• • Experience gap: Buculei has extensive match history and a higher career win rate
• • Alba Rey Garcia's short career and 10-21 record indicate inconsistent form
• • Market pricing exaggerates Alba's chance (1.296) leaving value on the underdog at 3.28