Alba Rey Garcia vs Shiyu Ye

Highlights

• • Current away price 3.33 implies a large underdog payout vs research-based estimate
• • Profiles show no clear edge for the favorite; market appears overconfident

Pros

• + Strong positive EV (≈33%) at the quoted away price
• + Decision driven by objective parity in the provided player data

Cons

• - Research is limited: profiles are truncated and lack head-to-head, seeding, or match-specific context
• - High uncertainty driven by sparse data increases variance despite positive EV

Details

The market prices Alba Rey Garcia at 1.29 (implied ~77.5%) vs Shiyu Ye at 3.33 (implied ~30.0%), which normalizes to ~72.1% / 27.9% after removing the bookmaker overround. Both players' provided career profiles show near-identical records (10-21 across clay and hard) and recent form offers no clear edge; surface is clay which both have played. Given the lack of distinguishing data in the research, we estimate the true win probability is closer to 40% for the away player and 60% for the home player — materially more favorable to the underdog than the market implies. At an estimated p = 0.40 for Shiyu Ye, the minimum fair decimal price is 1 / 0.40 = 2.50; the current offered price of 3.33 yields positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 3.33 - 1 = 0.332 (33.2% ROI per unit). We therefore recommend backing the away player at current prices because the market price overestimates the favorite given the identical records, neutral surface advantage, and no injury or form information favoring Alba Rey Garcia. odds_used_for_ev: 3.33; ev_at_current_decimal_odds: 0.332.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface exposure in the provided data
• • Surface is clay (outdoor) and neither profile provides a decisive clay advantage
• • Market prices (1.29 vs 3.33) appear to overstate the favorite given the available information