Albert Calin vs Ruslan Serazhetdinov

Highlights

• • Market implies ~87% for Serazhetdinov (1.15) but research shows only one match played
• • At our 70% probability estimate, required odds for value are ≥1.429 — current 1.15 is far below that

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on favorite — lines are widely available and stable
• + If outside information later confirms Serazhetdinov dominance, value could shift

Cons

• - Extremely limited data for Serazhetdinov increases estimation uncertainty
• - No information on Albert Calin prevents confident undervalue identification for the 5.0 line

Details

We see a heavy market bias toward Ruslan Serazhetdinov at 1.15 (market-implied win prob ~86.96%) but the available research shows only a single recorded pro match for Ruslan (a loss on hard) — an extremely small sample. Given the lack of information on Albert Calin in the provided research and the thin form data for Ruslan, we assign a substantially lower true-win probability for Serazhetdinov than the market implies. Using an estimated true probability of 70% for Serazhetdinov, the expected value at the current price (1.15) is negative (EV = 0.70 * 1.15 - 1 = -0.195). Conversely, Albert Calin's 5.0 price (market-implied 20% win prob) would require a true chance >20% to be valuable; given no data on Calin we cannot confidently assert that advantage. Because neither side shows positive EV against the available prices and data, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Ruslan has only one recorded pro match in the provided data (0-1) — extreme sample size risk
• • Market odds (1.15) imply ~86.96% chance — substantially higher than our assessed probability
• • No research provided for Albert Calin, leaving his form and surface aptitude unknown
• • Surface note: Ruslan's lone match was on hard and was a loss, reducing confidence in an 87% market probability